Empirical / Tests Myths - CO2 and Climate Change
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Empirical / Tests Myths
The key test of a hypothesis is whether it can stand up to real world observations. Real observations reveal that the "CO2 is a major cause of global climate change" hypothesis is FALSE!
Myth: The close correlation of CO2 and temperature, as temperature has gone up and down over the last 400,000 years, proves that CO2 is causing the climate changes. 

Fact: Since 1999, multiple technical, peer reviewed articles have been available that demonstrate exactly the opposite conclusion. CO2 changes lagged temperature changes as temperature increased or decreased. Temperature changed and then, several hundred years later, CO2 levels changed. Since a cause does not follow an effect, this indicates that CO2 is not a primary driver of climate change.

Antarctic Temperature and CO2 history from ice core analyses.  Note the amazing rhythmical similarities of the four cycles, which indicate the very strong solar-orbital influences on Earth's climate.  Since Earth's CO2 level do not drive the solar-orbital cycles, your can see why many scientists doubt the currently popular "CO2 CAUSES harmful global warming" argument.  On the other hand, an increase in CO2 may provide some slight positive feedback (support) to a warming Earth, but the magnitude or even the direction of positive or negative feedback is still being debated.

Adapted from Pettit, et. al., 1999

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Myth: The graph by Mann, et al., the so-called "hockey stick" used in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, showing 1,000 years of stable temperatures until the twentieth century when the temperatures rose rapidly after humans began putting large quantities of CO2 in to the atmosphere, proved that CO2 has caused global warming. 

Fact: Later the IPCC removed the Mann graph, since Mann left out data that showed the climate had varied considerably over the past 1,000 years before humans had introduced significant amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Myth: Large chunks of ice breaking off glaciers (calving) around the world are proof of the catastrophe being caused by global warming. 
Fact: Glaciers constantly calve ice into the sea, even more so when the glaciers are growing. Photographs of such activity are no proof of any catastrophe occurring.
Myth: The current rate of warming is unprecedented. 

Fact: The short-term temperature swings during the most recent glacial stage had much higher rates of cooling and warming. Also, the rate of temperature rise in the 1920s and 1930s, before people began putting huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, was higher than the rate of increase over the last 25 years of the 20th Century.

Myth: Scientists are unanimous that man-made CO2 is the dominant cause of global warming. 

Fact: Not so. Many, many reputable scientists believe that natural factors overpower the current influence of CO2 on global warming. Several hundred prominent scientists and/or science professors that have no ties to the petroleum industry have stated publicly that CO2 is not a significant cause of global warming. Over 30,000 more, including 9,000 PhDs have stated man-made CO2 is not expected to cause catastrophic warming.

What are some of these prominent scientists now saying publicly?

Myth: Storms are now much more frequent and intense because of man-made global warming. 

Fact: According to the National Hurricane Center, storms are no more intense or frequent than they have been since 1850. 

Short-term natural cycles and variations dominate the historical record of extreme storm events.  There has been no long-term trend in strong storms such as hurricanes or tornadoes.

The perception that hurricanes and tornadoes are getting worse is driven by a combination of a greater (and wealthier) population living in harm's way, better technologies directed towards detecting and tracking these storms, and nearly ubiquitous media coverage of extreme weather and its impacts.  So when storms do strike, they cause seemingly more damage and suffering that is on display for the world to see.

But, when you take an unemotional looks at storm numbers themselves, nothing unusual stands out.  There have been no long-term changes that could be associated with climate change from CO2 emissions.

The figure below shows the historical occurrence of strong-to-violent tornadoes across the U.S. since 1950 during the height of the annual tornado season (March-August).  Note the large degree of year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability.  The 1960s and 1970s were a very active period of strong tornadoes, the most recent decade has been relatively inactive.

 




Hurricanes show large annual to decadal fluctuations in their activity level.  The figure below shows the level of hurricane activity summed across the global and the Northern Hemisphere for the past 50 years.  Hurricane activity levels fluctuate widely, but there is little evidence for long-term behavior changes.

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Conclusion:
CO2 omissions are not leading to detectable changes in the behavior or characteristics of extreme storm systems like hurricanes and tornadoes.

References:

Maue, R., 2009 Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity.  Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L05805, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035946.  Updates available at http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical

National Climate Data Center, 2008.  U.S. Tornado Climatology.  Updates available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climates/severeweather/tornadoes.html

 


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Myth: Global warming causes more droughts and floods. 

Fact: Historical data and ice core analyses do not support such statements. Cold periods on Earth were drier and windier.

The Mayan civilization disappeared during a centuries long drought that occurred before Earth warmed to the Medieval Warm Period. The Anazazi Indians left and moved south while their land was in the grips of the drought and cold of the Little Ice Age.

Analyses of 106 peer-reviewed studies, worldwide, indicate droughts in the last century are no more frequent or severe than in previous millennia.

Analyses of 47 peer-reviewed studies of North America, Europe and Asia indicate no increased frequency or severity of floods last century.

Myth: As Earth warms, the climate will become much drier and windier. 
Fact: All studies of the ice cores prove just the opposite. The colder times were both windier and drier as evidenced by the tremendous increase in airborne dust found in the polar ice cores.
Myth: Human activities are causing unprecedented melting of Earth's glaciers and accompanying sea level rise. 
Fact: Ask yourself, why did so many more glaciers melt and sea level rise 18 to 20 feet higher than today during the last interglacial period, 120,000 years ago, when modern man was not around to introduce any CO2 into the atmosphere? Ponder the facts.
Myth: For every additional unit of CO2 that we add to the atmosphere, we will see an equal amount of warming. 

Fact: False. Calculations by many reputable scientists show that each additional unit of CO2 will trap less heat than the previous unit. The decline is rapid, logarithmic, causing CO2's warming effect to become minimized very quickly. Since the current pace of the temperature rise has been less than modelers predicted from the ongoing CO2 rise, it supports the premise of CO2's diminishing role in causing climate change.

In fact, Earth's temperature has trended down for the last eight years as worldwide CO2 levels have continued a steep rise.

Myth: Polar bears will likely go extinct if this warm period continues through the 21st century. 

Fact: A jawbone of a polar bear has been found that is 120,000 years old, a time during the previous interglacial when temperatures were five degrees Celsius warmer and sea level 19 feet higher than today.

They adapted then, why not now?

Myth: It will take only a little more CO2 to trigger a runaway global warming. 

Fact: Earth has never experienced a runaway warming, even when CO2 levels were 5,000 to 7,000 ppm!

Ironically, for the anthropogenic global warmers, this indicates that some of the feedbacks must be negative as Earth warms and becomes wetter and cloudier, which can promote cooling.

Myth: Global warming is causing species extinctions. 

Fact: Extremely misleading. We know no studies that demonstrate that there were more species on Earth during the coldest part of the ice age 25,000 years ago.

Have there been some extinctions both before and after that? Of course, but for many other reasons such as victims of more aggressive competitors, diseases, the sudden temperature changes throughout Earth's history, documented extraterrestrial impacts that change the atmosphere and ocean chemistry instantly and, very recently, habitat destruction by humans.

Exaggerated threats of extinctions by the modest warming of the past 150 years have proven false, but the catastrophic cries raise money and fulfill other agendas, including the threat of extinction of their own organization by a more successful similar group that can out-cry them.

Myth: Rising CO2 levels have been responsible for initiating large climate changes in the past. 

Fact: As have been previously covered, detailed studies of ice cores demonstrate that CO2 changes followed temperature changes and could not have been the instigator of the large climate changes in the past.  Nor is CO2, at its diminished ability to trap additional heat, expected to initiate any global climate change in the future. 

Ask your climate modelers why, if real evidence shows it has not initiated climate changes in the past, they keep saying it will do so in the future.  They may say that the rate of CO2 increase is unusual so that is making the difference this time. 

Ask them why, if as they stay, the last 10 years of CO2 increase is at its historic highest rate of increase, why global temperatures have been decreasing in the 24/7 presence of all this CO2?

 

Myth: CO2 emissions are causing ice loss at the Earth’s poles. 

Fact: While there is less ice than the 20th century average at the North Pole, there is no factual evidence that CO2 is causing the warming that is leading to ice loss there. 

The ice volume at the South Pole is continuing to increase, despite the modest global warming that occurred last century. 

Nothing is happening that is unusual when compared to Earth's constantly changing climate

Myth: The temperature today is warmer than Earth has been for the last 1,000 years. 

Fact: False. The Medieval Warm Period of 1,000 years ago was warmer than today. Grapes were growing in London.  Sixty-three of sixty-five peer reviewed studies confirm that the Medival Warm Period was as warm or warmer than today.

The human race was flourishing, just as it had a thousand years before that during the Roman Warm Period. Temperatures during the last interglacial, 110,000 to 150,000 years ago were as much as five degrees Celsius warmer than today and sea level was approximately 19 feet higher; all before man began putting CO2 into the atmosphere.

Ponder the facts.


 
 
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